The US dollar ended last week with a modest rebound following the Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling to strike down President Donald Trump’s use of emergency tariffs. Yet, within hours, Trump reconfigured its approach by deploying a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 and launching new sector‑focused actions under Sections 301 and 232. His act ensures that trade frictions remain a structural feature of the global landscape rather than a passing phase.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s minutes delivered a more hawkish tone than investors had anticipated, mentioning “two‑sided” risks and clearly pushing back against the notion of a pre‑programmed glide path to cuts.
Rate‑cut odds for March fell further, and June probabilities were pared back, but not enough to constitute a full repricing. The Dollar took its cue from this combination of reduced near‑term easing hopes and stabilizing 10‑year yields, with the Dollar Index (DXY) extending its rebound off the 95.55 low and breaking above the 55‑day EMA around 97.6.
Still, the move lacks the hallmarks of a new bull cycle: price action remains consistent with a corrective recovery inside a broader downtrend, and resistance around 100.39 continues to define the ceiling for any tactical upside. Meanwhile, the underlying risk environment proved more resilient than the headlines might suggest. Despite sharpening U.S.–Iran tensions and a visible war premium in oil and gold, equities consolidated just shy of record highs, and high‑beta FX remained supported, underlining that investors are treating these shocks as manageable tail risks rather than regime‑changing events.
Pairs In Focus
1. GBP SGD
This pair has failed to break higher and has broken through two clear zones of interest in February.
GBP/SGD daily chart, Source: TradingView
The price is now rejecting from the key 1.71 level. Any sustained effort to fail to close above 1.71100 and the possibility of a decisive move below 1.69 is becoming more likely.
2. EUR NZD
This pair has completed the previously noted head-and-shoulders pattern, declining to 1.96225.
EUR NZD daily chart, Source: TradingView
If the price decisively breaks through that level and tags the previous low, it opens the possibility of a sustained move lower toward 1.92600.
The Week Ahead
The coming week will test whether the Dollar’s latest bounce can gain traction or fade back into the broader downtrend.
The most dominant event will be Nvidia’s earnings. A solid result and guidance that validates AI‑driven capex could reinforce the current equity resilience, limiting haven flows into USD and capping DXY below the 100 area. By contrast, any disappointment on AI spending or margins would likely trigger another bout of tech volatility, steepen risk‑off positioning, and give the greenback fresh support against pro‑cyclical currencies.
On the macro side, U.S. consumer confidence on Tuesday and Friday’s PPI and Chicago PMI will be scrutinized to confirm that growth is cooling from the 1.4% Q4 pace without tipping into a recession. Softer confidence and subdued wholesale inflation would re‑anchor expectations for rate cuts later in the year and could stall DXY’s advance, especially if the 10‑year drifts back toward the 4.0% area.
Note: Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article's contents. Readers may use this data for information and educational purposes only.
