Asian Forex Overview (February 10-15)

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The last week experienced significant volatility, mostly on Friday when a weaker-than-anticipated non-farm payroll number sent the market into a spiral. Unemployment has clearly bottomed, and it has been slowly rising for the previous months, raising speculations about an incoming recession.

Incoming week might see more of the same, as two prominent central bankers will speak on Tuesday. BOE Governor Bailey will deliver a speech at the University of Chicago, discussing changes in financial markets.  Meanwhile, FED Chair Powell will testify to Senate Committee on the semiannual Monetary Policy report. The latest inflation data could cause further market movement, particularly if it ticks higher than anticipated.

Key News:

  • Tuesday: BOE Bailey Speaks, FED Chair Powell Testifies,
  • Wednesday: USD – CPI
  • Thursday: GBP – GDP, CHF-CPI, USD – PPI, Unemployment
  • Friday: USD- Retail Sales

Pairs In Focus

1.AUD CAD

After a flush move higher, AUD CAD has broken the key daily level of 0.89840. As long as it stays below, the likelihood of it retesting the previous low around 0.88600 is increasing. The retail sentiment is overwhelmingly long (70%), which adds to the probability.

AUD CAD 4-Hour chart, Source: TradingView

2.GBP SGD

GBP SGD has an aligning confluence of higher timeframes, as the monthly and weekly charts point to sustained weakness. The downside target is 1.66600, which presents approximately 125 pips to the downside. For that to materialize, the price has to stay below 1.67900 on the daily timeframe.

GBP/SGD 4-Hour Chart, Source: TradingView

Retail Spotlight

AUD NZD retail sentiment is overwhelmingly short at 85%. If the price decisively closes above the key level of 1.10870 and takes out stops from December, this breakout could pose a prime buying opportunity, with a chance of taking the November stops at around 1.11740.

Notes:

  • AUD JPY:  Broke the key support at 95.200, with the potential to dip to liquidity at 93.600.
  • AUD SGD: A rotation back to the mean might be underway. Long-term target is 0.87440
  • AUD CHF: Flipped bullish but failed to close above 0.57030 to confirm. It might continue to range.
  • CAD JPY: It completed a multi-month range pattern and is breaking out to the downside.
  • CHF JPY: Broke out of a symmetrical triangle. Likely to retest September 2024 low.
  • EUR AUD: Remains in a full-month consolidation without clear direction.
  • EUR JPY: Broke out of a long-term consolidation to the downside. It is likely to take out stops from August/September 2024.
  • GBP NZD: Made a lower high on a daily chart, likely to retrace to support toward 2.1750.
  • GBP JPY: Breaking out of the long-term consolidation like many other JPY pairs. Bearish with the potential to take out September 2024 lows.
  • NZD JPY: Bearish, but close to strong support at 84.800.
  • SGD JPY: Bearish, but near a support of 111.200.
  • CHF SGD: Found support after a prolonged, multi-month decline. It has yet to confirm bullish momentum.

Disclaimer:

Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article's contents. Readers may use this data for information and educational purposes only.

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Stjepan Kalinic

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