Last week marked an incredible contrast for risk assets. Early in the week, equities shrugged off the US government shutdown to reach new highs, only to flash crash on Friday when President Donald Trump announced 100% tariff hikes on Chinese imports and called China's rare earth controls "hostile". The result was the worst weekly loss for major indices since late May, as the Dow Jones went down as much as 2.7%. With the U.S. government shutdown halting key data releases, equities traded on positioning and headlines—until trade risk repriced everything in a single session.
The dollar firmed broadly as the week progressed, aided by safe‑haven demand and the vacuum of U.S. data that tends to suppress volatility and keep the policy path narrative intact. Precious metals performed well, with spot gold surpassing the historic $4,000 per ounce mark after clearing $3,000 earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen told the weekly story in reverse. Early on, USD/JPY surged more than 2% to 150.47—its highest since August—after Japan’s ruling LDP selected Sanae Takaichi, seen as aligned with Abenomics-style fiscal support and accommodative policy. Traders pared back near‑term central bank hike expectations, steepening the back end and pressuring the currency. The BOJ’s cautious optimism, paired with reminders about tariff risks to corporate profits, reinforced a “wait for data” stance—another headwind for the yen at the start.
Yet, by Friday, everything flopped. Equities tanked and yen surged owing to its status as a safe-haven.EUR/JPY, which had printed its strongest level since the euro’s inception earlier in the week, faded into the weekend; the euro also slipped against the dollar and the pound amid French political churn and lingering budget optics. The US Dollar index, which typically reacts well to turmoil, rose to 98.11.
Pairs In Focus
1.GBP AUD
After a prolonged decline, GBP broke the downtrend on Friday, rising sharply against the AUD and breaking the long-term resistance at 2.05250.
GBP/AUD daily chart, Source: TradingView
With a pullback imminent, if the price can hold and reject this level on the daily, the opportunities for a continued bullish run to 2.08400 could materialize.
2. SGD JPY
The Singapore dollar saw a breakout early last week, climbing to the highest point against the yen year-to-date. After an end-of-week pullback, the price is now reaching the point of former resistance at 116.280.
SGD/JPY daily chart, Source: TradingView
If this point has now turned into support and holds its ground, it could provide a good buying opportunity to reach fresh highs.
Looking At The Week Ahead
With earnings season set to begin and the shutdown delaying macro updates, markets enter this week with tighter risk budgets, a stronger dollar, and a reawakened sensitivity to trade policy headlines—especially those that hit supply chains and pricing power.
The market will be closely watching for any trade war updates. Meanwhile, on the scheduled calendar, central bank leaders will provide updates, with several speeches scattered throughout the week. With the ongoing government shutdown, the release of Thursday's retail sales data remains uncertain.
Still, the earnings season will provide some orientation, as major banks will begin reporting their Q3 results.
Note: Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article's contents. Readers may use this data for information and educational purposes only.
